Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
